THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER

‘A monumental, gripping book … Outstanding’ SUNDAY TIMES

‘Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece’
Angela Duckworth, author of Grit

‘An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight’
Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics

From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think.

We like to think we make decisions based on good reasoning – and that our doctors, judges, politicians, economic forecasters and employers do too. In this groundbreaking book, three world-leading behavioural scientists come together to assess the last great fault in our collective decision-making: noise.

We all make bad judgements more than we think. Noise shows us what we can do to make better ones.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER

#1 Washington Post Bestseller 

There’s Santa Claus, Shakespeare, Mickey Mouse, the Bible, and then there’s Star Wars. Nothing quite compares to sitting down with a young child and hearing the sound of John Williams’s score as those beloved golden letters fill the screen. In this fun, erudite, and often moving book, Cass R. Sunstein explores the lessons of Star Wars as they relate to childhood, fathers, the Dark Side, rebellion, and redemption. As it turns out, Star Wars also has a lot to teach us about constitutional law, economics, and political uprisings.

In rich detail, Sunstein tells the story of the films’ wildly unanticipated success and explores why some things succeed while others fail. Ultimately, Sunstein argues, Star Wars is about freedom of choice and our never-ending ability to make the right decision when the chips are down. Written with buoyant prose and considerable heart, The World According to Star Wars shines a bright new light on the most beloved story of our time.

Why are group decisions so hard?

Since the beginning of human history, people have made decisions in groups—first in families and villages, and now as part of companies, governments, school boards, religious organizations, or any one of countless other groups. And having more than one person to help decide is good because the group benefits from the collective knowledge of all of its members, and this results in better decisions. Right?

Back to reality. We’ve all been involved in group decisions—and they’re hard. And they often turn out badly. Why? Many blame bad decisions on “groupthink” without a clear idea of what that term really means.

Now, Nudge coauthor Cass Sunstein and leading decision-making scholar Reid Hastie shed light on the specifics of why and how group decisions go wrong—and offer tactics and lessons to help leaders avoid the pitfalls and reach better outcomes. In the first part of the book, they explain in clear and fascinating detail the distinct problems groups run into:

• They often amplify, rather than correct, individual errors in judgment
• They fall victim to cascade effects, as members follow what others say or do
• They become polarized, adopting more extreme positions than the ones they began with
• They emphasize what everybody knows instead of focusing on critical information that only a few people know

In the second part of the book, the authors turn to straightforward methods and advice for making groups smarter. These approaches include silencing the leader so that the views of other group members can surface, rethinking rewards and incentives to encourage people to reveal their own knowledge, thoughtfully assigning roles that are aligned with people’s unique strengths, and more.

With examples from a broad range of organizations—from Google to the CIA—and written in an engaging and witty style, Wiser will not only enlighten you; it will help your team and your organization make better decisions—decisions that lead to greater success.

Bestselling author Cass R. Sunstein reveals the appeal and the danger of conformity

We live in an era of tribalism, polarization, and intense social division—separating people along lines of religion, political conviction, race, ethnicity, and sometimes gender. How did this happen? In Conformity, Cass R. Sunstein argues that the key to making sense of living in this fractured world lies in understanding the idea of conformity—what it is and how it works—as well as the countervailing force of dissent.

An understanding of conformity sheds new light on many issues confronting us today: the role of social media, the rise of fake news, the growth of authoritarianism, the success of Donald Trump, the functions of free speech, debates over immigration and the Supreme Court, and much more.

Lacking information of our own and seeking the good opinion of others, we often follow the crowd, but Sunstein shows that when individuals suppress their own instincts about what is true and what is right, it can lead to significant social harm. While dissenters tend to be seen as selfish individualists, dissent is actually an important means of correcting the natural human tendency toward conformity and has enormous social benefits in reducing extremism, encouraging critical thinking, and protecting freedom itself.

Sunstein concludes that while much of the time it is in the individual’s interest to follow the crowd, it is in the social interest for individuals to say and do what they think is best. A well-functioning democracy depends on it.

All over the world, private and public institutions have been attracted to “nudges,” understood as interventions that preserve freedom of choice, but that steer people in particular directions. The most effective nudges are often “defaults,” which establish what happens if people do nothing. For example, automatic enrollment in savings plans is a default nudge, as is automatic enrollment in green energy.

Default rules are in widespread use, but we have very little information about how people experience them, whether they see themselves as manipulated by them, and whether they approve of them in practice. In this book, Patrik Michaelsen and Cass R. Sunstein offer a wealth of new evidence about people’s experiences and perceptions with respect to default rules. They argue that this evidence can help us to answer important questions about the effectiveness and ethics of nudging.

The evidence offers a generally positive picture of how default nudges are perceived and experienced. The central conclusion is simple: empirical findings strongly support the conclusion that, taken as such, default nudges are both ethical and effective. These findings, and the accompanying discussion, have significant implications for policymakers in many nations, and also for the private sector.

Para entender como pensamos e aprendermos a pensar melhor, é obrigatório ler Ruído

Do autor de Pensar, depressa e devagar e Prémio Nobel da Economia, Daniel Kahneman,em colaboração com Cass R. Sunstein e Olivier Sibony.

Dois médicos na mesma cidade podem chegar a diagnósticos divergentes para pacientes idênticos. Dois juízes podem ditar sentenças diferentes para crimes semelhantes. Imagine agora que esses médicos e juízes tomavam diferentes decisões influenciados pelo facto de ser de manhã ou de tarde, ou por ser segunda-feira e não quarta-feira, ou porque ainda não almoçaram. Estes são alguns exemplos de ruído: variações em decisões que deveriam ser idênticas.

O ruído está presente em todas as nossas decisões, individuais ou colectivas, e dá origem a erros de julgamento nos mais variados campos, incluindo na medicina, nos tribunais, na saúde pública, nas previsões económicas, nas ciências forenses, na protecção de menores e nos recursos humanos. Além disso, influencia-nos e prejudica-nos no momento de tomar decisões quotidianas mas cujo impacto e custo pode ser maior do que imaginamos.

Daniel Kahneman, um dos psicólogos mais importantes da actualidade e Prémio Nobel da Economia, em conjunto com Cass R. Sunstein e Olivier Sibony, duas eminentes personalidades do pensamento estratégico, ensinam-nos a avaliar a origem desse ruído, cuja influência tendemos a ignorar, e a tentar reduzi-lo, para melhorar os nossos processos de análise e de tomada de decisão. Seguindo uma fórmula semelhante à do clássico contemporâneo Pensar, depressa e devagar, Ruído: porque tomamos más decisões e como podemos evitá-lo é um livro revolucionário que oferece soluções práticas e simples para aprender a pensar melhor.