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Future Babble: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Unpredictable Kindle Edition
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future – everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherVirgin Digital
- Publication date31 August 2012
- File size1325 KB
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About the Author
Review
A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose. ― Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of California
Hugely enjoyable ― Financial Times
It is a tour de force, absolutely outstanding ― Matt Ridley
This book should be required reading for America's intelligence agencies -- Dylan Evans ― The Guardian --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Product details
- ASIN : B0093JKVAS
- Publisher : Virgin Digital (31 August 2012)
- Language : English
- File size : 1325 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Print length : 322 pages
- Best Sellers Rank: #177,708 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #2,342 in Society & Culture (Kindle Store)
- #4,343 in Sciences, Technology & Medicine (Kindle Store)
- #9,134 in Society & Culture (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the author

Dan Gardner is the New York Times best-selling author of books about psychology and decision-making. His work has been called "an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to the think clearly" by The Guardian and "required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them" by Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker.
Gardner’s books have been published in 25 countries and 19 languages.
In addition to writing, Gardner lectures on forecasting, risk, and decision-making.
Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist and feature writer whose work won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism.
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