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Dan Gardner

Philip Tetlock

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction MP3 CD – Import, 29 September 2015

by Dan Gardner (Author), Philip E. Tetlock (Author), Joel Richards (Narrator)

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From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.

Language

English
Publisher

Audible Studios on Brilliance audio
Publication date

29 September 2015
Dimensions

17.15 x 13.97 x 1.27 cm
ISBN-10

1511358491
ISBN-13

978-1511358491
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About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Audible Studios on Brilliance audio; Unabridged edition (29 September 2015)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1511358491
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1511358491
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 72.6 g
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 17.15 x 13.97 x 1.27 cm

Customer Reviews:
4.3 4,033 ratings

About the authors

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Dan Gardner
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Dan Gardner is the New York Times best-selling author of books about psychology and decision-making. His work has been called "an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to the think clearly" by The Guardian and "required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them" by Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker.
Gardner’s books have been published in 25 countries and 19 languages.
In addition to writing, Gardner lectures on forecasting, risk, and decision-making.
Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist and feature writer whose work won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism.
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Philip Tetlock
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Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events.
For more see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock
For CV: https://www.dropbox.com/s/uorzufg1v0nhcii/Tetlock%20CV%20%20march%2018%2C%202016.docx?dl=0
Twitter: https://twitter.com/PTetlock
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-tetlock-64aa108a?trk=hp-identity-name
For an interview: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-how-to-win-at-forecasting
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Philip Tetlock
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Discover more of the author’s books, see similar authors, read author blogs and more
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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5

4,033 global ratings

5 star		57%
4 star		28%
3 star		10%
2 star		3%
1 star		2%

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Gogineni Kalyaan Kumar

Awesome

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 26 August 2022

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Nice . Crisp . Wonderful.

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GD

Five star book. Must read if you make decisions in uncertain and unpredictable situations.

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 6 December 2015

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This is undoubtedly one of the most important book I have read in the recent times. This book will have a lasting impact on any one who is involved in decision making in unpredictable world. If you regularly deal with uncertainty and chance while making critical decision then this book will be invaluable to you.
The book is on the topic of how do you correctly assign the probability on the events that are very uncertain. Some examples given in the book - Will they find traces of polonium poisoning in the exhumed body of Yasar Arafat. Or Will there be another terrorist attack in Europe in the next quarter. Who will win the election. You get the idea...of a kind of uncertainty we are dealing with all these outcomes. The book articulates in great detail the methodology used by few superforecasters, the ordinary folks, to arrive at correct probability of such very uncertain events. These people were all part of Good Judgement project initiated by author and his wife and funded by NIA or something. It ran for 4 years and these superforecasters beat CIA analysts (who had real time field intel) by 30% or so. They used internet, google alerts, Baysian probability etc tools to gather and process the data to arrive at their prediction. Many of these superforecaster have background in computer science, Math, technology and engineering. But the methods can be applied by any graduates. They are not beyond the capabilities of any graduate. It just calls for very structured analytical analysis of data and not basing your decisions on just an intuition.
The book also tells us that a team of superforecasters is even more accurate than single superforecaster...provided they freely share the data with each other, independently research and process the data, share their opinion without fear and overall treat each other with respect.

The decision making methodology and concept posited in this book has serious practical implications for certain groups of people like for example....stock investors, top executives, business development managers, opinion makers, forecasters etc.
The book is written by author with help from Gardner who is a reporter and professional writer. The book is greatly enhanced by this partnership. The book is very easy and interesting read due to Gardner's contribution.

I have no hesitation in recommending this splendid book to all who deal with uncertainty in their professional life. Five star Book.

21 people found this helpful

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ARUPENDRA DAS

Holistic approach to forecasting for all

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 28 February 2019

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The book starts with a slow pace introducing readers to the concept of forecasting on any subject. It covers the probability of military strike to successful launch of new product with some real world examples. If prospective readers are planning to buy this book just to get an insight into some mathematical formula then they will be disappointed. But then this is what makes the book interesting and legible to common readers.

The subject becomes interesting from chapter 4 "Super forecasters" and then it really picks up pace. I am only halfway through the book and have started liking the approach. Only shortcoming being the small letters and the print not very clear.

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vijay m

Improve your decision making skills

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 25 June 2016

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A really nice book by Fetlock and Gardner on their findings from the "Good Judgement Project". He talks about 'Superforecasters' and how they can forecast events with high accuracy using their "mathematical way of thinking". This book is not just for people who are into forecasting but
for everyone to improve their decision making skills using the tools mentioned in the book. These tools can be added to our framework of "mental models". Some key takeaways:
o Have an "inside view/ outside view" approach to decision making.
o Know what’s the base rate and avoid "base rate fallacy"
o Have a probabilistic way of thinking.
o Beliefs are hypothesis that needed to be tested, not treasures that need to be protected.
o Take ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and consider different viewpoints like ‘dragonfly-eyed’.
o Being aware of cognitive and emotional bias.

Verdict: Highly recommended!

5 people found this helpful

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Manu

Forecasting is a tricky business. Broadly, no one wants to do it. For the corageous few who try, the job is not easy. Forecasters may not be 100% accurate 100% of the times...but they provide a hazy shooting target where the alternative is shooting in the dark. And for that, they should be commended. This book provided some great ideas for structuring the approach for making forecasts. While most forecasters follow the methodologies in varying degrees, this book is a great collection of all the things you should pay attention to while creating your forecast.

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 23 November 2018

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Forecasting is a tricky business. Broadly, no one wants to do it. For the corageous few who try, the job is not easy. Forecasters may not be 100% accurate 100% of the times...but they provide a hazy shooting target where the alternative is shooting in the dark. And for that, they should be commended. This book provided some great ideas for structuring the approach for making forecasts. While most forecasters follow the methodologies in varying degrees, this book is a great collection of all the things you should pay attention to while creating your forecast.

4 people found this helpful

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Arun Tangri

Loved the narration

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 10 October 2019

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Pure numbers can be boring for a lot of people. Stories, on the other hand, goes with everybody. I loved the way the author narrated the subject with real-life examples throughout the book. I have a feeling that it'll help in shaping the thought process for me and my team in my startup as well. Highly recommended for those who want their forecasting to be better than a dart-throwing chimp. :)

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Mahesh Reddy

Good in some portions

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 21 January 2020

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3.25/5. The thesis of the book revolves more around superforecasters and less around superforecasting.

The Ten Commandments at the end are the best part of the book. The notes sections has some quite valuable resources too.

This is not to say it’s a boring book of sorts, it’s just that it tells way more stories rather than exploring the core idea of how to actually work on forecasting.

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Manikanta H.

Lot to learn from this

Reviewed in India 🇮🇳 on 27 January 2018

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It starts with the idea of prediction / forecasting. One might think there isn't much need of accurate forecasting in your profession/personal life. But as you progress with this book, you'll learn a lot of interesting things. Very insightful things on leadership, organisation, politics etc. are explored here. Give it a shot. You won't regret.

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Top reviews from other countries

Joe W.

Not useful for Fantasy League

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 12 June 2020

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I’m not being funny or anything but I bought this book because I thought it would help me sort my fantasy league team out. I’m in second to last place, 3 points ahead of Jimmy the Turk and I’ll level with you I’m worried. Anyway Dom Cummings suggested I buy this book and since he was spot on about the 300m per week from the NHS I though I would go for it. Alas, the last two weeks before lockdown I lost both of my fantasy fixtures despite super forecasting hard all night. I even emailed Dom Cummings to ask for my money back but I superforecast that is unlikely to happen.

83 people found this helpful

obiwan_9000

I forecast waffle

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 18 August 2018

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This book was recommended to me by a friend because both of us occasionally need to forecast as part of our jobs. In many aspects of this book it was like reading about how granny sucked eggs. A lot of the book covers theory on what makes an accurate forecast. There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting.

The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. There seems to be a lot of it. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. Many of the same examples of Superforecasting were repeated more than once.

It was funny to read that a lot of businesses are not actually that interested if a forecast is right or wrong provided the forecast tells them what they want to hear. Talking from experience I know this to be true. In addition other forecasters are reluctant to revisit old forecasts in fear of exposing their inaccuracies, which to me, made zero sense and I am glad Tetlock agrees with this view.

Overall it is a good read, just nothing special if you do this sort of thing for a living.

55 people found this helpful

Anya

Worth a read

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 27 April 2020

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I found this a really interesting book. I was very sceptical at first and the idea of superforecasters sounded like an issue of survivorship bias, but the author did address this satisfactorily. For the most part the book just goes through various types of logical fallacies and how you can avoid these to make more accurate predictions about the future, so if you know a bit about probability and logical fallacies already you won't find it much new. But the story of the Good Judgment Project is very interesting and certainly worth knowing about.

Certainly in this time of COVID-19, after reading this book you'll start noticing a lot of public figures fall into basic data interpretation mistakes, make predictions that turn out to be totally wrong, and then continue as normal anyway!

8 people found this helpful

Eff

Learn the pitfalls and tips for forecasting

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 8 October 2018

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This book is a great book for understanding forecasting. It explains the methods and personalities of 'Superforecasters', people who Tetlock have studied who consistently outperform experts and non-experts alike in forecasting future events. Not perfect predictions, mind you, but consistently better statistically. What do they do differently than ordinary people to perform so well? Tetlock gives his best explanation in this book.

One criticism I have is that I would've liked it to better slightly less "popular" science; include a bit more hard data, remove a little of the padding. However even with this criticism, there was much for me to learn. And it did include substantial references to evidence.

Prediction is an extremely important component to testing whether your hypotheses are correct. Therefore, knowing about prediction is a key issue in science. Anyone who cares a lot about science should read a book like this or something similar. For any such person, I would gladly recommend this book.

12 people found this helpful

Iryna

Insightful read, but somewhat too long

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 21 January 2021

Verified Purchase

The book clearly presents the results of a year long and very thorough work of the authors, dealing with how to improve our forecasting skills. It has given me a different perspective on the validity of many forecasts we see in the media and made me reconsider, how I am approaching forecasting in life at at work. However, after reading 50% of it, I felt like the concepts become repeatable, and the author is just trying to prolong the story by dwelling more on the same several key ideas. In any case, I would read it again, as it gives a different perspective on an interesting and important topic.

4 people found this helpful

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